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Canalys: Global smartphone shipments are expected to grow by 4% in 2024, reaching 1.17 billion units.
Release Date:
2023-11-29 00:00
Source:
On November 27, Canalys reported that after a steep 12% decline in the global smartphone market in 2022, the market is showing early signs of recovery in 2023. Although shipments are still expected to fall by 5% this year, the downward trend has begun to ease. This year, regions such as the Middle East, Africa, and Latin America are set to return to growth, with increases of 9%, 3%, and 2%, respectively. Canalys forecasts that smartphone shipments will reach 1.13 billion units in 2023 and rise by 4% in 2024, hitting 1.17 billion units. By 2027, shipments are projected to climb to 1.25 billion units, reflecting a compound annual growth rate of 2.6% from 2023 to 2027.
Zhu Jiatong, a senior analyst at Canalys, stated: “Although the market remains more than 20% below its 2017 peak, the smartphone industry is emerging from a challenging phase. The good news is that consumers are assigning unprecedented value to smartphones. Today, the average selling price of a smartphone has surpassed $440, compared with just $332 in 2017. In key growth markets, profitability is steadily improving for manufacturers that strategically introduce innovative features.”
Sanyam Chaurasia, a senior analyst at Canalys, stated: “The smartphone market’s rebound in 2024 will be driven by emerging markets, where smartphones remain a key enabler of connectivity, entertainment, and productivity. By 2024, one in every three smartphones sold will come from the Asia-Pacific region—up from just one in five in 2017. In particular, demand is recovering in India, Southeast Asia, and South Asia, propelling the Asia-Pacific region to grow at a 6% annual rate. As these countries’ macroeconomic conditions and consumer confidence stabilize, the pace of smartphone replacements and upgrades is expected to accelerate.”
Canalys analyst Runar Bjørhovde emphasized: “In 2024, on-device AI technology will have only limited capacity to drive the capabilities of high-end smartphones. Canalys forecasts that smartphones equipped with chips capable of running advanced on-device AI models will account for less than 5% of total shipments. Growth in the high-end smartphone segment has already begun to slow, as replacement demand remains weak in mature markets such as Western Europe and the United States. During the pandemic, consumers in these markets upgraded their devices while still enjoying ample disposable income. In these regions, a genuine growth cycle for premium devices may not materialize until 2024–2025, when AI features and use cases become sufficiently compelling to spur upgrade demand.”
Zhu Jiatuo added, “In 2024, as business conditions improve, Chinese manufacturers such as Honor, Transsion, and Xiaomi will proactively expand into overseas markets rather than adopting a defensive stance. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainties, market competition is set to intensify, particularly in high-growth emerging markets. Optimism continues to build across distribution channels, among manufacturers, and throughout the supply chain.”
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